Monday, June 2, 2014

[6-02-2014] Obsirmational Bias (Day +2021)

Wikipedia tells me that observational bias occurs
...when researchers only look where they think they will find positive results, or where it is easy to record observations
and then you have confirmation bias, where
...observations are biased toward confirming the observer's conscious and unconscious expectations and view of the world; we "see what we expect to see".
As far as I can tell, what I'm going through seems like a combination of the two. Mix the two and add some Heisenberg to the mix, and you have what I call obsirmational bias, where
...you're objectively searching for new evidence to either prove or disprove your hypothesis, but each new area you look can only yield evidence to support your hypothesis. In addition, the act of searching for new evidence can actually create evidence where there was none before. 
I think you can see where I'm going with this. Worrying about a relapse is positively riddled with obsirmational bias. Here are a ton of examples:

  • Once I started worrying about a relapse, I started taking my temperature more frequently. In doing so, I discovered that I frequently have a temp of around 99.6 in the middle of the day. For all I know, this could be status quo, but since I'm not measuring more frequently, this feels like more evidence to support a relapse. 
  • I also started paying more attention to my scalp and skin. Try the following experiment: look at your arm, and ask yourself if your arm it itching. Think hard about it. Does it itch? What about when you think about it 20 times a day? Might you then scratch it a bit? Oh, and don't forget that scratching your skin can cause you to itch where you hadn't before! In this way, you're causing this problem by thinking about it, and reinforcing it by acting on it, causing you to loop in a downward spiral of itchiness. Unfortunately, I don't think this is what is happening here, but I think you see my point. 
  • I also started probing my chest a bunch to see if I could feel the tumor. For example, if I sneeze or cough with my hand on my chest, I could feel the tumor again! OMGC! Of course, I don't routinely sneeze or cough like this, so this could also be status quo for all I know. Oh, and get this: the next day my tumor location was sore! OMFGC! Or wait, did I cause the location to be tender because I was coughing/prodding/poking it all day?  
  • I also started scratching to see if I had demographia again. You know what happens to skin when you scratch it? It turns RED, dummy! (Of course, if the skin was raised, that'd be a different story).  

And on and on. Believe it or not, there are even more examples, but I'll spare you all. My point is that I can't trust myself right now. I see symptoms everywhere, and I've got to stop digging. It's not productive.

Ok, one last example. I started going through my medical records and I found an interesting discovery. Just before my BMT, I had a scan that mentioned
a small, borderline, mildly hypermetabolic left neck lymph node measuring 6mm, of unclear significance.
A later scan said that it was "suggestive of a minimal disease state" and that I also had
enlarged paratracheal lymph nodes [with] hypermetabolic tissue extending to the right paratracheal and precarinal regions. 
Hey, wait a second. Maybe that's why I experience the most dermographia on the left side of my neck! Wham! Obsirmational bias strikes again. They need to hurry up and get my CT scan scheduled.

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